Excuse me if I don’t leap to my feet and applaud, because every National
Championship scenario -- whether it involves 4, 8, 16 or 32 teams comes back
to one common ingredient: Polls.
The problems with polls start before anyone has even taken a snap. Is there
any greater proof of poll-voter bias than their willingness to name a “Top-25”
before most teams have even opened fall camp? Yet every August, sportswriters
“round up the usual suspects” to populate the Top-25. Long before
anyone plays a down, Florida State, USC, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State and
Michigan are consecrated as the teams to beat.
Then, for three weeks, many of those teams play doormats, but as long as they
don't lose, they stay in the Top-25.
Over the course of a twelve-week season, teams hit peaks and valleys, but
poll movement occurs at a glacial pace. The pre-season pretenders fall slowly
while the Cinderellas wait their turn. The result is a reality lag. Polls don't
even begin to resemble what is happening on the field until late October. Even
then the “traditional powers” thinking prevails.
It's not just a matter of who is good when, it's a matter of…
A) if and when the voters notice, and...
B) how far they are willing to move a team -- up OR down -- in any given week.
In any play-off scenario, someone has to decide who is in and who is out, who
is #8 -- and therefore in the play-off -- and who is number 9 -- and therefore
out. The difference between #3 and #5, between #13 and #17 or 18, is purely
subjective, especially in a game that usual comes down to a handful of plays,
breaks and “The strange bounces of an oblong ball.” On any given
day, #5 can beat #1, and #17 can beat #13.
Every play-off scenario calls for a decision about which teams are in and which
teams are out. And the only way to do that is by selection or by vote.
When that happens, nothing is being settled on the field.
Sure, the pollsters throw stats at it because numbers always make things look
official and scientific. But our world is full of absolutely meaningless data.
Take Sagarin. That bit of pseudo-science hasn't exactly cleared anything up.
Nor is anything being settled on the field when the national championship itself
is only open to members of a handful of conferences and Notre Dame. As of this
writing, the Mountain West is 7-5 against BCS conference teams, yet members
of that conference are deemed unworthy of consideration for the national championship.
Two of the great aspects of college football are...
A) The maxim "On any given day, anyone can beat anyone" is proven
on a weekly basis.
B) With only eleven or twelve games in the season, every game matters.
Or so one would think. But losses are “weighted” differently depending
on when they occur. More often than not when the weekly polls come out, one
team is ranked above a team that defeated them. So much for “settling
it on the field.”
 |
| "On any given day, anyone
can beat anyone" --
Marshall proved this statement
to be true defeating
Kansas State on the road
27-20. |
When you add it all up, the idea that one can arrive at a definitive top 8
or top 16 just doesn't hold water.
So the "National Championship" continues to be mythical -- and pretty
much unconcerned with what happens on the field. Particularly if it involves
Pac-10 teams.
November of 2000 was perhaps the most blatant example. Never mind the dimpled
chads in the presidential election, the real Florida voting fiasco took place
in the last weeks of November, when for no apparent reason, Miami vaulted ahead
of Washington. Never mind that Washington had beaten Miami earlier that year,
the Oklahoma and the Florida teams -- as a block -- were ranked #1, #2 and #3
ahead of the Pac-10 teams.
Then there is the Notre Dame exemption: If Notre Dame wins nine games, they
receive an automatic BCS bowl berth. Domers will say that is because Notre Dame
plays a national schedule, however in recent years, that schedule has included
such perennial powers as Army, Navy, Rutgers, Northwestern and Stanford.
If a Pac-10 team wins 9 games -- against a much tougher schedule -- they get
an all expenses paid trip to El Paso. Christmas in North Juarez!
Last week, Virginia Tech moved from 106th to second in the nation in one week
-- a week in which they did not play -- in a computer model created and run
by a graduate of Virginia Tech.
This week, Michigan was beaten handily in Eugene. At one point, the home team
was up 21-6 and held Michigan to minus 3 yards rushing. Monday morning, the
ESPN poll listed Michigan at #10 and the team that defeated them at #15.
Bottom line: the BCS is predicated on a lie. The only place it "settles"
anything is on the laptops of several hundred sportswriters and talking heads
and in the back rooms of the biggest business interests in college football.
This is where the national championship talk is coming from: Budweiser, ESPN,
ABC,… the people who stand to turn the greatest
profit. They're the same people who are pushing college football toward a "superconference"
that will bear a very strong resemblance to those pre-season Top-25 polls.
This does not bode well for 90 percent of college football. Already the BCS
has killed off the smaller bowls that used to be a big deal for a town and the
local chamber of commerce as well as the teams involved. They were bowl games
in the purest sense -- a bonus game of two teams that appeared to be evenly
matched and who wouldn't have played otherwise. The game -- in and of itself
-- was what mattered, in large part because it didn’t occur in the shadow
of a mythical national championship.
 |
| Despite defeating Michigan on Saturday
the Ducks are ranked below the Wolverines. |
They're gone, of course, overshadowed by the myth. And it's not just the small
bowls. The Copper Bowl is gone. As the illusion of a "True National Championship"
grows, can non-BCS bowls like the Cotton, the Insight and the Sun be far behind?
Already the notion of a "national championship" has relegated every
other bowl to "undercard" status. In so doing, it has greatly diminished
the value of winning one's conference.
It has already happened in basketball. Winning the conference title is a nicety,
but with the NCAA tournament on the horizon, it amounts to winning the preliminaries.
The conference title means an automatic tourney berth and not much more.
In football, winning the Pac-10 doesn't even guarantee that much.
Sports Illustrated has already admitted that a Pac-10 team, with the possible
exception of USC, will never play for the BCS championship if there are any
other options available to the BCS.
History has borne this out. In 2000 the bias was so blatant that the Pac-10
threatened to withdraw from the BCS.
Not only is the BCS skewed against the Pac-10, it has been very bad for the
most tradition-rich bowl game in college football, the Rose BowlIn the January
2001, The Rose Bowl was the “BCS national championship game.” And,
instead of Keith Jackson calling a Big-10/Pac-10 match-up on a “chambah
of cahmmerce New Year's Day in Pasadena,” the Rose Bowl featured a Big-12/Big
East match up: Nebraska versus Miami. On January 4th. At night.
Last year’s Big-Ten champion, Ohio State played for the national championship.
So the Pac-10 champions, Washington State and Big-10 runner-up Iowa played in
the…. Well, they ended up in the Rose Bowl and the Orange Bowl. The Pac-10
champions ended up playing against a Big 12 team (Oklahoma) while Iowa, runner
up in the Big-10 to the eventual national champion, ended up in the Orange Bowl…
Where they played against a PAC-10 team, USC.
This year, there is a very good chance that USC will meet up with either Michigan
or Ohio State, but instead of the Rose Bowl, the Big 10 and Pac-10 champions
would play in the Sugar Bowl. The Rose Bowl, meanwhile stands to host Oklahoma
and Virginia Tech or some other match-up with no historical tie to the game.
 |
| We have traded tradition for a
system that still amounts to a vote, skews strongly against the west and
has robbed the Rose Bowl -- the Grand-daddy of them all -- of it's tradition
and prestige. |
College football is a game built on traditions. The fight songs, the mascots,
the rivalries.
Before the BCS, teams played against their conference rivals with the dream
of getting to and winning the Rose Bowl. If both were accomplished, that was
considered a fantastic season. Today, it is no less an accomplishment, however
it is juxtaposed against what didn't happen: “The National Championship.”
Here in the PAC-10, we’re sacrificing a lot more than we’re getting
back from the BCS. We have traded that for a system that still amounts to a
vote, skews strongly against the west and has robbed the Rose Bowl -- the Grand-daddy
of them all -- of it's tradition and prestige. All so that we can delude ourselves
into believing in a national championship that isn't any such thing.
Simply promoting a game as a “national championship game” doesn’t
make it so
when the contenders are based on votes and computer models. Every year there
are a host of teams who can claim that they were “arguably” the
best football team in the nation at the end of the season.
"Arguably” is the operative word. Those debates are half the fun.
They’re much more fun than the “false certainty” of a biased,
poll-based national championship. In our quest for certainty, we sacrifice the
fun of "what if..."
Instead of the "National Championship” being presented by some beer,
I’d rather "Settle the National Championship Where it Ought to be
Settled” – OVER beers with fans who are every bit as objective and
unbiased as I am.
Which is not at all.
But at least we admit it.
It's time to drop the B*S.
Jaydub joined BeaverFootball.com in 2003. The views expressed in his column
are not necessarily those of BeaverFootball.com. Jaydub can be reached at jaydub@beaverfootball.com.